Exprivia
Exprivia: 1,10 euro.
Destinata e condannata a crescere.
Ipotizzando/simulando una crescita annua del fatturato del 5% ed un mantenimento/leggero miglioramento dei margini a livello operativo tra il 13,50 ed il 14,50%, da qui a 10 anni, darebbe una valutazione cash (dcf - fcfe) di....1,00 e rotti, cioè la quotazione corrente, considerando più o meno la stessa struttura del capitale investito, anzi considerando un indebitamento di 30mln, cioè un 25% in meno dell'attuale.
Le sirene del PE, cioè dei multipli, dicono tuttaltro: la società quoterebbe meno di quel 10X che alletta molti investitori fans dei multipli.
DA confrontare com Reply.
Quindi a dopo con la suddetta.
Per ora, detto in due righe, 1,10 ci può stare.
Poi magari ci soprende con un bilancio da urlo, ma credo che eventuali sorprese siano da considerare eventualmente nel 2011, quindi occhio alla prossima intorno a metà maggio.
Etichette: Exprivia
posted by Zener1992 @ 2:46 PM
12 Comments:
Zener, ho visto che Exprivia è molto attiva anche in acquisizioni. E' un caso molto interessante di società con sede a Bari, che si sta espandendo anche in Europa. Mi chiedevo: quando farai un aggiornamento di Kerself? (nel passato l'hai seguita, mentre ora non troppo).
Egregio zener e egregi azionisti vi ricordo che Exprivia ha diffuso un piano industriale che prevede fra 2 anni RICAVI A 200 milioni con una redditivta'(ebitda) pari al 15% .
Percio' tutti i parametri e i multipli vanno rivisti al rialzo, ne consegue un prezzo obbiettivo almeno dai 2 euro in su'-
quindi a mio avviso ce' solo da comprare e lasciarle li perche' il mercato deve gia' scontare questi numeri.
http://www.exprivia.it/it_pressroom/press/2010/20101021.pdf
in effetti i numeri del piano industriale sono molto importanti e il mercato dovrebbe iniziare a scontare questi numeri.
http://www.exprivia.it/it_investor/presentazioni/Piano%20Industriale%2021%20ottobre%202010.pdf
credo anch'io che a questi prezzi vale la pena entrare con un target almeno di 1,5 euro-
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