GEOX
Ecco Geox.Finalmente!
Scusate ma il lavoro era tanto!
Numeri:
A settembre 2006 i ricavi si attestano a 549 mln in aumento del 30% rispetto a settembre 2005.
Il MOL è a 157 mln (+24,85%), l'EBIT a 143 mln (+27%) ; l'utile si attesta a 92 mln (+14%).
Nel 2005 ho notato che l'intervallo settembre / dicembre non è stato prospettico; anzi "riduce" alcuni indicatori di settembre: MOL, EBIT ed utile (tranne il fatturato).
Kaiser! così non è facile....Faccio due calcoli
Questo è il primo.
guardo allora i Ricavi finali attesi e le percentuali di"ritorno" sul MOL, EBIT ed Utile Finale...giochiamoci sopra senza esagerare tanto.
Ecco cosa esce fuori come dati attesi 2006 :
Ricavi 602 mln, MOL, 156 mln, EBIT 138 mln, Utile finale 101 mln....vedremo quando usciranno i dati.
Alle attuali quotazioni di 12,35 e considerando i dati sopra attesi si ha un PE di 31,50X: non è bassissimo.
Ma ....c'è un ma:
questo è il secondo calcolo....
Provo semplicemente a replicare il ROE del 2005 e guardo che utile esce fuori sul nuovo patrimonio in base ai dati attesi.
Il ROE 2005 al netto dei dividendi era di 36,92%...cioè: Utile 2005 75,25 mln / patrimonio 2005 203,40 mln = 36,92%....
Ma nel frattempo il patrimonio è cresciuto.
Prendo i dati attesi e calcolo un pay out ratio (distribuzione di una parte degli utili in dividendi) un po più basso - tolgo i dividendi che verranno distribuiti - e l'utile che rimane lo porto " a nuovo" facendomi crescere il patrimonio netto a circa 280 mln...(cioè patrimonio 2005 203,40 + utili 101 - 25 dividendi = 279,40 circa 280,00...) lo moltiplico per circa 36% (come nel 2005) ed ho 101 mln di utile!!!!...come nel primo calcolo!!
Sarà una coincidenza ma anche nel 2005 (rispetto al 2004) è stato così.
In seguito nelle prossime analisi verificherò questa cosa.
Intanto aspetto i dati definitivi del 2006 di Geox.
Ora questa cosa di replicare il ROE mi frullerà nella testa questa cosà...
posted by Zener1992 @ 8:51 PM
18 Comments:
ciao anch'io ho Actelios e metà le ho mantenute, quali sono gli ultimi dati di bilancio o hai già fatto un analisi che mi sono perso?
Ciao grazie
Andrea
Ciao Andrea..
li ho fatti i calcoli su Actelios..non ce li ho sotto mano ma li pubblicherò a breve.
Roby
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