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mercoledì, settembre 05, 2007

IT HOLDING



In questi giorni ho visto svariati giudizi positivi su It Holding.
Mediobanca dice 2,61 euro , Abax 2,57 euro, Unicredit 2,65 euro.
Solo Euromobiliare dice 2,05.

Io ho trovato questo piano industriale 2007 - 2010 ed ho cercato di elucubrarlo nei vari passaggi del conto economico (prospetto a sinistra colonna in azzurro).
Tralascio i particolari e le modalità che potete vedere cliccando sul link: i dati riguardano quel che dovrebbe (condizionale d'obbligo) essere nel 2010.
In pratica: poco o nulla a che vedere con l'attuale andazzo dei margini qui fotografato nell'ultima semestrale che non è nemmeno tanto bella: ricavi in flessione (pesa un -28% della linea giovani) compensati però da minori costi a livello operativo (sopratutto la voce servizi e personale)...alla fine il risultato è simile a quello dell'anno passato.....che brutta quella palla al piede degli oneri finanziari!...pesa per circa il 67% del reddito operativo!
Tornando al piano industriale.
Si parla di:
Ricavi a 840 mln con un Ebit margin del 16%.
Notando che annualmente vi sono ricavi diversi per circa 10 mln e lasciando perdere eventuali importi per rimanenze di prodotti in corso vuol dire un EBIT di 135 mln: importo ben diverso dal conto economico del 2006 (ultimo disponibile) che "diceva" circa 37 mln.
Faccio la prova del 9: nel piano si parla di "cassa operativa" per 205 mln che in calce spiegano essere il MOL cioè il passaggio prima dell'EBIT che NON considera gli ammortamenti, interessi ed imposte.
Quindi si deduce vi saranno ammortamenti per 70 mln: in linea con il 2006 e gli anni passati.
Arriviamo per conferma all'EBIT di 135 mln.
Fin qui - cioè fino alla metà del bilancio - tutto facile: le previsioni e le attese sono le loro.
Ora immaginazione
.....Partendo dall'EBIT al 16% dei ricavi: cioè 135 mln.
Bisogna togliere gli oneri finanziari: nel 2006 il saldo della gestione finanziaria era negativo per 36 mln.
Se nel 2010 ci sarà più produzione di cassa è probabile che l'indebitamento scenda e quindi anche gli oneri: io dico 30 mln di oneri finanziari.
Quindi: EBIT 135 mln - 30 mln oneri finanziari = EBT (utile prima delle imposte) di 105 mln.
Le imposte sono una brutta bestia ed It Holding lo sa bene: a giugno 2007 il tax rate è del 81% ed a fine anno è stato del 1416%.
Non c'è da meravigliarsi.
Nel nostro paese vige anche l'IRAP che - detto grossolanamente - tassa gli utili + i costi del personale + oneri finanziari...ergo se hai queste voci altine preparati a dare buona parte del reddito al fisco...ma questo vale anche se sei in perdita.
Diciamo che se nel 2010 le cose dovessero stabilizzarsi (e la guerra all'IRAP non porterà effetti) io immagino un tax rate del 46%: quindi imposte su 105 mln per 48 mln.
Si arriva ad un utile di 57 mln.
Conclusioni
Se il piano industriale verrà centrato, se l'immaginazione (nella parte bassa del bilancio) diventerà realtà, alle attuali quotazioni di 1,93 euro vuol dire:
PE 2010 a 8,37X; Ev/ebitda 3,29x (con indebitamento a 200 mln) ROE al 33% (con patrimonio a circa 170 mln) e ROI al 37%.
Non male....ma è un mio ragionamento...almeno nella parte bassa del bilancio...prima non mi appartiene.
Ci vediamo nel 2010.

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